Predicting the economic impact

[Grudge]

Ok, since the US Treasury Secretary is not giving a clear answer, let's see if mabb can be economists for a minute and try to compile/document the economic impact for this month, and if we're going to see a recession.

Bankruptcies and mass layoffs

Airlines
Restaurants, cafes, bars
Smalls services boutiques
Tourism companies

Severely - directly impacted

Travel aggregator companies (Expedia, Priceline, Kayak)
Hotels and hospitality
Malls, Apparel stores or any stores inside malls
Entertainment industry, theaters
Sports industry and venues
Most other small businesses and single-person labor
Medical Insurance companies

Indirectly impacted or caused

Loan defaults, banking
Home owner defaults, real-estate
Eroded 401Ks, dried up pensions and stock market wealth


What am I missing? Add any economic sectors you think are going to get hit.

[Grudge]

Goldman Sachs is saying we're going to have a recession but things are going to rebound second half of the year.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028999426

I wonder if for the US elections, this plays into Tru.mp's hands, where he is seen as a good captain of the ship, or if the decline in economic fortunes will hit his campaign negatively.

[jawn galliano]

goldman has a very rosy view if they think this is over in june

i do not share their optimism

[zim]

my sister who is a server was told to file for unemployment today

[Grudge]

Sorry to hear. I'm a little worried myself too because a lot of my company's corporate clients are in the list I shared above. If they suffer, my company's going to suffer and then that's when layoffs might happen.

[Grudge]

The "rebound" idea is dubious, how can there be a rebound if you were laid off, ran out of savings during this period, and have no money to buy goods with when its over?

[jawn galliano]

right, this isn't a paper problem like the GFC, this is real economy businesses taking hits and knock-on effects rippling out across industries all over. it's going to require massive interventions and social support to ameliorate, and the US political economy just doesn't allow for those things anymore. i think this is going to be such a massive-scale meltdown that it could finally provoke significant changes there, but it's probably just as likely it only further entrenches the existing corrupt power structure.

[Paste Human]

We were told at work today that we're not going to close because transportation plays such a vital role in the economy, and we happen to be the largest LTL shipper in the world by a pretty large margin. However we were also told to expect volumes to be pretty light for a while, and that they might ask for volunteers to stay home. I'll probably take them up on that since plenty of my co-workers with families to support need the much more than I do.

[jawn galliano]

alright, since this is the economic impact predictions thread, i will make one. a very short-term and nonspecific one, since that is the only time and scale you can really operate on right now.

in markets news, US equity futures are up 12% after the major indices bombed by as much today. guessing we'll have an early-day rally tomorrow, possibly a big one, though not as high as futures trading suggests. gonna say it caps out at 8-10% after a trading halt due to extreme volatility (a regular feature in equities markets these last couple of weeks!).

after that, more grim covid news & dashed hopes of a comprehensive stimulus package will come out and crowd out the bullish patter in finance reporting, the gains will be promptly erased, but by closing the S&P index will be roughly close to where it started the day, no more than +/-3%.

[Olden Polynice]

It's not actually worth getting anxiety ridden over.

[Grudge]

When shit hits the fan, everyone becomes a socialist.

Italy has nationalized its airline, Spain has nationalized its private hospitals and clinics, France's Finance Minister is talking about nationalizations, Mayor of NYC is saying nationalize businesses, UK re-nationalization of rail transport is looming.

[Grudge]

What is also needed is heavy progressive taxation, seizure of the wealth of the trillionaire club that is currently sitting there unable to be used for the reconstruction effort.

[Mesarthim]

It's funny how much this crisis is showing us how broken the American system truly is.

if nothing else - maybe we could not only get reformed healthcare but also paid time off / unemployment as well (hey a man can dream!). so many people that have it good just assume that everyone is as well off as they are and if they're not it's because they're just lazy* - when in fact they couldn't be more wrong. when shit hits the fan, no matter what you do for a living - it'd be nice if we actually had some kind of social safety net in place...


*actual republican talking point

[vO)))id]

[jawn galliano]

S&P up by 6, your boy fucked up

[droidspawn]

My buddy lost $30,000 in his 401k the last week

[zim]

i just started my 401k at the beginning of this year

[Paste Human]

Volumes at work have remained surprisingly strong. If I hadn't shown up late today I would have gotten overtime.

[User]

the brewery is still doing well, cancelled events but people are still turning up in the evening to drink in small tables

home delivery cans should be strong for this month

[Grudge]

I am not thankfully exposed to stocks or heavy 401K investment. Thankfully I also got a sizeable bonus last week, so I could survive 10 months of unemployment with my bank balance, maintaining my current living standards.

[Grudge]

$2,000 for every American....

[rhino]

https://youtu.be/0c3bhh8fqYs

[zim]

if you're not happy about the money you can happily donate to your local homeless or animal shelter

[Grudge]

I'm getting more and more restless about this, I've had enough job-related uncertainty in my life. Gone through long periods of unemployment. Didn't think I'd have to worry about this shit all over again.

I need to think of a game plan to get out of this.

[jawn galliano]

tons of certificate action at work this week. lots of people trying to lock in rates before deposit rates get slashed to nothing (which should roll out in the next week or so) and lots of people cashing in early to meet margin calls. whew.

[User]

exciting times

[Grudge]

Goldman Sachs has now gone and done the sensible thing by revising their forecasts. They are now predicting a 24% drop in GDP for the US. I think the way they came to this estimate is still a little stupid, but it seems like a more believable number than the 5% decline they estimated before.

Isn't 24-25% close to what happened in the Great Depression?