Expectations for social and economic recovery in 2021
Posted: 29 Dec 2020, 06:10
So, with all this optimism going around about the vaccines, which appear to be effective, I want to say my piece about how fast we can get back to the way things used to be.
1. The majority of healthy people, hopefully that includes all the people on this board, will not get the vaccine until around April in the US. I don't know the pattern that will be followed in Europe, Australia, the rest of the world, but I think that really mass-scale vaccinations are still a few months out. Consider also all the supply-side issues we are seeing, low production, mismanaged logistics etc that are preventing a speedy rollout.
2. You have to keep in mind that these vaccinations generally require two shots spaced out 2-3 weeks, so if you get the first vaccination beginning of April, you'll have to get another one around the 3rd week. Don't overlook that immunity will not build up as soon as you get that second shot, so it could take a few more weeks after that second shot for you to develop that immunity. So you're not really going to be covid-immune until mid-May.
4. It would be very fucked up if by the time we get our vaccinations, the immunity of other people who got it before us starts dying out. I really do hope the immunity lasts at least a year. Hopefully by April we will know if these anti-bodies last a few months because of all the people who are going to get it before us.
5. I don't think consumer confidence is going to come roaring back when these mass-vaccinations start in a few months. Personally, I'm excited about getting my shot, but deep down I feel I'm still not going to feel normal being around people in densely packed environments, and I feel others will feel the same way. I don't think the Malls, Restaurants and Concerts are going to be suddenly teeming with life and activity.
6. All of this makes me conclude that the US economy is going to continue to be fucked all the way through the first half of 2021.
1. The majority of healthy people, hopefully that includes all the people on this board, will not get the vaccine until around April in the US. I don't know the pattern that will be followed in Europe, Australia, the rest of the world, but I think that really mass-scale vaccinations are still a few months out. Consider also all the supply-side issues we are seeing, low production, mismanaged logistics etc that are preventing a speedy rollout.
2. You have to keep in mind that these vaccinations generally require two shots spaced out 2-3 weeks, so if you get the first vaccination beginning of April, you'll have to get another one around the 3rd week. Don't overlook that immunity will not build up as soon as you get that second shot, so it could take a few more weeks after that second shot for you to develop that immunity. So you're not really going to be covid-immune until mid-May.
4. It would be very fucked up if by the time we get our vaccinations, the immunity of other people who got it before us starts dying out. I really do hope the immunity lasts at least a year. Hopefully by April we will know if these anti-bodies last a few months because of all the people who are going to get it before us.
5. I don't think consumer confidence is going to come roaring back when these mass-vaccinations start in a few months. Personally, I'm excited about getting my shot, but deep down I feel I'm still not going to feel normal being around people in densely packed environments, and I feel others will feel the same way. I don't think the Malls, Restaurants and Concerts are going to be suddenly teeming with life and activity.
6. All of this makes me conclude that the US economy is going to continue to be fucked all the way through the first half of 2021.
